The Mets 10-Game Report: Volume 4

Hello, boys and girls, and welcome to the 4th installment of the Mets 10-Game Report.  

Previous results:

Volume 1: Games 1-10: Record: 5-5

Volume 2: Games 11-20: Record: 4-6

Volume 3: Games 21-30: Record: 8-2

And the latest:

Games 31-40

Record: 4-6

vs ATL L 8-3

vs ATL W 4-3

vs ATL L 8-7

@ SFO W 7-4

@ SFO W 8-6

@ SFO W 9-6

@ SFO L 2-0

@ LAD L 3-2

@ LAD L 5-3

@ LAD L 2-1

Runs Scored: 44

Runs Allowed: 47

Team BA: 101/355 = .284

Team BA with RISP: 25/96 = .260

Team BA with RISP and 2 outs: 8/42 = .190

HR's: 2  (2?)

HR’s Allowed: 4

Team ERA: 90.1IP, 37ER = 3.69 

Starter ERA: 61IP, 27ER = 3.98

Bullpen ERA: 31IP, 10ER = 2.90

Team BAA: 103/363 = .283

Errors: 12 (gasp!!!)

GIDP: 13

Fielding DP: 11

SB: 17 (nice)


Volume 3 MVP's:
Starter: Mike Pelfrey: he has been very steady over his last few starts, and is very economical with his pitches - which I love.  
Reliever: K-Rod: this guy is a winner.  But we knew that.  
Hitter: David Wright: Wright appears to be in first-half 2006 clutch mode.  Welcome back, David.  

Volume 3 Makers Mark Specials:
Starter: John Maine: he wasn't even that bad, but he got roughed up a bit in his most recent start.  
Reliever: J.J. Putz: this man needs to stop giving up a run every time he comes into a game.
Hitter: Fernando Tatis: he has been very cold at the plate.  

Summary Analysis: Obviously this is a disappointing result.  But I would submit that things are not as bad as they seem.  Sort of.  The Mets started this volume after having won 7 in a row, so we can tolerate that they started off by losing two of three to the Braves (even though they lost those games in typical frustrating Mets fashion).  Then they went to San Francisco and won 3 in a row, and - wow - did they look good doing it.  All of the sudden (and this started shortly before the San Fran series) the Mets began to get those big clutch hits, to rake with runners in scoring position, and they began to score lots of runs late in games.  They looked stellar.  

Then they lost 4 in a row: they lost the last game in San Fran, and then they got swept by the Dodgers.  They were in every one of those games until the very end, and - no - I don't want to talk about Church not touching third base in game 2 against the Dodgers.  If there is any positive to look at over this mediocre 4-6 result, it's that the pitching was still very, very good.  And at the end of the day it's all about pitching.  

The problem was the offense.  On this recent 4 game losing streak, they couldn't get any hits with RISP.  But this time, injuries have played a much bigger role in the offensive struggles.  No Reyes, no Delgado.  Delgado I believe can be made up for - especially with Daniel Murphy manning first base.  And the Mets did alright for a little while with Reyes out of the lineup.  But then - and this really killed them - Alex Cora went down with a thumb injury.  Enter Ramon Martinez.  Mr. Martinez, you have no business being in the major leagues.  In any case, the Mets lineup has been a mess over the last few days because of this.  

On the one hand - this is comforting, since we can be confident that once the lineup is back in tact, everything will be fine.  But on the other hand - who knows how long it will be in flux?  Reyes will likely go on the 15 day DL now.  Will we have to watch Ramon Martinez play short stop or second base all this time???

In any case - it's worth noting that after 40 games last year, the Mets had the exact same record as they do now.  They did it a bit differently last year, going 5-5, 6-4, 5-5, 5-5.  I have to say that I feel much, much more confident about the team right here right now than I did after 40 games last year.  The Mets posted a putrid 3-7 in volume 5 last year, so this next 10-game stretch for the Mets right now is very crucial I think.  They have 3 against Boston at Fenway, and then they come home to play the Nats and Fish.  6-4 would be perfectly fine.  

Around the NL East:

Phillies: 4-6, 7-3, 5-5, 5-3

Braves: 5-5, 5-5, 4-6, 6-3

Marlins: 9-1, 3-7, 4-6, 3-7, 0-1

I saw an interesting stat on the Phillies recently.  They are 7-2 against the Nats this year.  Take away those games, and they are one game under .500.  The Braves appear to be playing better, but they are still a .500 team until they prove otherwise.  And the Marlins - well they are quickly making a case for being pulled off the list here.  They just can't seem to get out of their own way.  

In other news, the Yankees look pretty hot right now.  Ah, baseball is so funny and so fickle.  Things change so quickly.  One week, the Yankees are losing everything and look awful and the Mets look like world beaters, and then the very next week things are completely reversed.  This weekend is going to be very, very interesting, and - I hope - a hell of a lot of fun.  Mets @ Red Sox; Phillies @ NYY.  I'll be rooting for the pinstripes for the first time in my life.  

The Mets 10-Game Report: Volume 3

Welcome to Volume 3 of the Mets 10-Game Report.  The Amazins are starting to roll, and are currently in first place in the NL East.  

Previous results:

Volume 1: Games 1-10: Record: 5-5

Volume 2: Games 11-20: Record: 4-6

And the latest:

Games 20-30

Record: 8-2

vs FLA L 4-3

@ PHI W 7-4

@ PHI L 6-5

@ PHI postponed

@ ATL W 6-4

@ ATL W 4-3

vs PHI W 1-0

vs PHI W 7-5

vs PIT W 7-3

vs PIT W 10-1

vs PIT W 8-4

Runs Scored: 58

Runs Allowed: 34

Team BA: 103/340 = .302 (yes)

Team BA with RISP: 30/88 = .340 (yes)

Team BA with RISP and 2 outs: 9/45 = .200 (they still suck at this)

HR's: 12 (see, Citi Field ain't that big)

HR’s Allowed: 8

Team ERA: 72.2IP, 30ER = 3.73 (yes)

Starter ERA: 59IP, 21ER = 3.20 (yes)

Bullpen ERA: 31IP, 9ER = 2.61 (yes)

Team BAA: 77/333 = .231 (nice)

Errors: 10 (woah - too high)

GIDP: 7

Fielding DP: 8 (Big Pelf is a double-play ground-ball inducing machine)

SB: 16 (nice)


Volume 3 MVP's:
Starter: Johan Santana: Is this guy even human?  His ERA is 0.91.
Reliever: K-Rod: 4 saves in a row vs the Braves and the Phillies - nice.  And in that second game against the Braves, he needed to get 5 outs.  
Hitter: Carlos Beltran: He is still locked in and looks as good at the plate as he has ever looked in a Mets uniform.  

Volume 3 Makers Mark Specials:
Starter: Oliver Perez: Disabled list, bullpen, minors, whatever - I'm just glad he is no longer in the rotation.  Hopefully he will work his stuff out and return in shape.  
Reliever: Sean Green: Visions of Aaron Heilman...
Hitter: Ryan Church: His batting average has dropped to the .260s after hitting over .400 through the first 2 weeks of the season.  

Summary Analysis:  This isn't rocket science, folks.  When you pitch well, and when you hit with runners in scoring position, you're going to do a lot of winning.  And that's exactly what the Mets have done in this 3rd Volume of the season - they have won a lot.  8-2.  That's impressive.  It must be noted that the Mets did not notch themselves an 8-2 on the 10-Game Report last year until Volume 13.  

Of course, at the end of the day, it really does come down mainly to pitching.  The Mets struggled in the first two volumes mainly because the starting pitchers other than Santana pitched to a collective ERA of about 6.50.  But over the last 10 games, everyone seems to have gotten themselves in a groove.  Big Pelf, Johnny Maine, and El Duque's brother have all been solid.  And it was  quite nice to see the young Jonathan Niese pitch well against the Pirates on friday night.  Hopefully he will be consistent.  

I made a point of saying in the last two volumes that we haven't even yet gotten to see the Mets bullpen really show their value.  Well we got to see it in Volume 3.  Those wins against the Phillies and Braves? - Yeah, not happening with the 2008 Mets bullpen.  Parnell, Putz, K-Rod.  Wash, rinse, repeat.  When the Mets are ahead after 6 innings, they are going to win most of the time.  No one is perfect of course, and even K-Rod will eventually blow a save or two.  But over the course of a 162 game season, this current Mets bullpen will be the best in the business.  

The offense, though they still can't get those hits with RISP and 2 outs, have nonetheless gotten the hits with RISP and less than 2 outs.  It's about time, and really was only a matter of time, I suppose.  A team with a collective batting average of over .300 is eventually going to bring in those runs.  The lineup is starting to gell.  Reyes seems to have turned the corner away from his early season slump, Castillo continues to be great at the plate, Beltran is just in the zone, Delgado still has his pop, and even David Wright has shown some signs of improvement.  He does still have way too much of a tendency to strike out in big spots.  It's funny with Wright.  No one looks as bad hitting .310 as he does.  But that's the thing - we're all getting on Wright, and rightfully so at times, and the guy his still hitting over .300.  He'll only get better too as the season goes along.  

The Mets have also gotten some very good help at the bottom of the batting order, thanks to the likes of Gary Sheffield, Omir Santos, Fernando Tatis, and Ramon Castro.  Brian Schneider - take your time getting back from the DL.  

Winning cures all ailments, and it's very contagious.  And it's pretty nice, if you're the Mets, to be able to follow up a 7-game winning streak with Johan Santana on the mound to try to make it 8.  What we're seeing now is the starting pitching performing to its potential, which has allowed the offense to relax and simply realize their talent.  And there is tremendous talent in that lineup and on this team.  

We have, of course, seen this team lose in mind-blowing ways, and we have seen them before look awful after a decent stretch of looking great.  But they gave us one encouraging sign here: they whopped the Pirates and swept them out of Citi Field after beating the Braves and the Phillies.  Last year the Mets might have dropped 2 of 3 to a team like the Pirates after looking great against their division rivals.  So there is good reason to think that this team is on the right track.  

For Volume 4, the Mets have a 3-game set at home against the Braves, and then they travel to the west coast to take on the Giants for 4 games, and the Manny-less Dodgers for 3.  

Things are finally looking up for this team.  Let's hope they keep it that way.  

Around the NL East:

Phillies: 4-6, 7-3, 4-5

Braves: 5-5, 5-5, 4-6

Marlins: 9-1, 3-7, 4-6

The Phillies continue to showcase the fact that they have no starting pitching and a one-dimensional offense.  The Braves still can't get their stuff together, and the Marlins continue to struggle after starting off the season 11-1.  The Marlins will rebound I think.  Their starters have taken a beating lately, but they still have a nice rotation and a lot of power in that lineup. 

And in the American League, the Yankees still can't get anyone to sit in those 25oo dollar seats, which now cost only 1200 I hear.  And their ballpark is giving up more homeruns than Citizens Bank Park.  Meanwhile, the Red Sox continue to play the role of "Daddy" to the Yankees, while the Rays continue to play the same role to the Sox.   

A fork in the road

The Mets have been terrible this season.  They are 9-12.  They have been bad in every way (especially David Wright, the "face of the franchise").  

There are two ways I could react to this.  I could pound on the negative.  I could obsess over how they have started a trend over the last two seasons of being a bunch of choke artists.  I could write them off, and I could write off the whole season.  

(It'd be easier if this was a financially blue collar team.  But we know that's bullshit.) 

Or, I could recognize that being a Mets fan is about being able to endure pain.  I could realize that the money spent is basically irrelevant.  These are the Mets.  

I could recognize that with the Mets - it is not, and it never was, nor is it ever supposed to be, easy.  Even in 1986 when they dominated the regular season, they had to endure Mike Scott.  They had to endure game 6 against the Red Sox.  They had to endure the brink of elimination.  

I'm tired of this team.  I'm tired of caring about them.  I'm tired of caring about a bunch of millionaires.  

But I love the Mets.  Maybe they really do suck.  Maybe they are a bunch of choke artists.  Maybe they will amount to nothing, and the whole team will be blown up at the end of the year, including David Wright and Jose Reyes.  

But as long as this season is still alive, I don't give a flying fuck.  I love the New York Mets.  Unconditionally.  And until they are mathematically eliminated, I will believe in this season, and I will believe in this team. 

The Mets 10-Game Report: Volume 2

Hello, boys and girls, and welcome to the second official installment of the Mets 10-Game Report, brought to you with the confidence that Johan Santana will make it 2 series wins in a row today for the Amazins and get them off on the right foot for Volume 3.  

Previous Results:

Volume 1: Games 1-10: Record: 5-5

And the latest:

Games: 11-20

Record: 4-6

vs MIL W 1-0

vs MIL L 4-2

@ STL L 6-4

@ STL L 5-2

@ STL L 12-8

vs WAS W 4-3

vs WAS W 8-2

vs WAS L 8-1

vs FLA W 7-1

vs FLA L 7-4

Runs Scored: 41

Runs Allowed: 48 

Team BA: 92/330 = .279

Team BA with RISP: 28/100 = .280 (really? that high? strange.)

Team BA with RISP and 2 outs: 16/55 = .290 (sometimes, the numbers just don't tell the whole truth)

HRs: 3 (Citi Field seems to be more conducive to triples than homers.  I mean, Sheffield and Delgado each have a triple at Citi.  But yeah - it is hard to hit the ball out of this park.  Which I much prefer to a bandbox wind tunnel like they have in Philly and in that gaudy monstrosity in the Bronx.)

Team ERA: 87IP, 47ER = 4.86 

Starter ERA: 55IP, 32ER = 5.23 (Considering that Johan currently has an ERA of 0.70, this does not speak well of the other starters.  But as of late they have actually come around a bit.  More on that in the analysis.)

Bullpen ERA: 31IP, 16ER = 4.65 (Sean Green = bad, very bad.)

HRs allowed: 10 (way too high)

BAA: 91/335 = .271 (way too high)

Errors: 5

GIDP: 9

Fielding DP: 8

SB: 6

Volume 2 MVPs:

Starter: Johan Santana: As advertised.  His ERA is 0.70.

Reliever: Bobby Parnell:  This young kid has got nasty stuff.  He's got a hard slider, and a 96 mph fastball.  And he's our 7th inning man.  Parnell, Putz, K-Rod.  Wash, rinse, repeat.  And we have yet to see this fearsome threesome really prove their value to the Mets.

Hitter: Carlos Beltran: He's hitting .400 and has just been totally locked in at the plate lately, which is nice, because he usually gets off to slow starts.  Beltran is not the flashiest of players, but he's by far the best defensive center fielder in baseball.  And when he's locked in at the plate as he is right now, he makes it look easy.

Volume 2 Maker's Mark Specials:

Starter: Oliver Perez: He's gone from good-Ollie/bad-Ollie to just plain bad-Ollie.  But we all hope that his start against the Phillies this saturday will get his season finally going.  Last year he gave up a total of 1 run to the Phillies.

Reliever: Sean Green: Well, this worthless arm is the only guy who brings back memories of last year.  No more, please.  And Jerry - NEVER bring this guy in to protect a 1 run lead in the 7th again.  

Hitter: David Wright: I hate to pick on my boy, but he deserves it.  He's off to a slow start.  He can't get a hit with runners in scoring position.  He's late on the fastball.  He whifs at the low and away slider.  His last two games he has looked a bit better.  But in any case - in 2007, DW hit .240 in April with o homeruns.  He looked even worse then.  But he fixed it and went on to have one of his signature 25+ HR 100+ RBI seasons.  He will do it again.  I'm not worried about David Wright.  

Summary Analysis: Oddly enough, despite the terrible 4-6 result, this volume has me feeling better than volume 1 had me feeling.  Volume 2 was pretty lopsided, with the Mets putting themselves in a hole by starting out 1-4, and then going 3-2.  You can pick on the offense about not getting the clutch hits, but at the end of the day - it's all about pitching.  Starting pitching, in particular.  And the Mets starting pitching has been just awful.  With the exception of Johan Santana, these guys have all pitched to ERAs over 6.  

Now, there is some good news on the horizon.  Mike Pelfrey, John Maine, and Livan Hernandez all had good starts their last times out.  They were awful in their starts prior to those, which is why Volume 2 is so lopsided.  I'm more worried about Big Pelf and Johnny Maine.  Hernandez is what he is.  But Maine and Pelf looked very solid their last times out and I'm confident they will now get on track.  Once the starting pitching gets consistent, this team will start to roll.  The bullpen is top notch.  The numbers are skewed for them this time around because Sean Green really stunk a couple times and gave up a whole lot of runs, but this bullpen is not Sean Green.  This bullpen is Parnell, Putz, and K-Rod.  Once the starting pitchers start doing their thing and give these guys a chance to really do their thing, the Mets will start rolling off those 4-6 game winning streaks and play.600+ baseball.  

The offense still concerns me as far as the clutch factor goes.  And - they still are not able to dig deep late in games when they are down by 2 or more runs.  That's a mental thing that they must get over.  But as far as the basic numbers go - everyone in this lineup, for the most part, is hitting well.  I love that Jerry Manual has put Beltran in the 3-hole and Wright back in the 5-hole.  This is the formula that worked so damn well in 2006.  

All that said, I do still worry about the overall sense of urgency and psyche of this team.  I'll have a better sense of all this, as we all will, once April turns into May and May turns into June.  

Next on the docket for the Mets in Volume 3 is the final game of the Florida series, then what I'm sure will be a fun weekend in Philadelphia, then Atlanta, then back home for Philly and Pittsburgh.  This, in my view, is the Mets' first real test.  Division rivals.  The defending champs.  the hated Braves.  It's time for the Mets to make their mark.  6-4 is not going to cut it.  I mean, that would be fine, but that would put the Mets at .500.  We need a nice 7-3 or 8-2.  

Records of other teams of interest:

Phillies: 4-6, 7-2 

Braves: 5-5, 5-5

Marlins: 9-1, 3-7

I hate the Phillies.  All they do is win when they are clearly not supposed to - like when they are down by 1000 runs in the 8th inning.  But when you play in Citizens Bank Park, where routine pop flies turn into homeruns, anything is possible.  The Braves continue their half and half play, while the Marlins finally come down to earth.  And in the American League, the Yankees are sitting at 10-10 while the Red Sox just had their 11 game winning streak snapped - a winning streak which included a pretty nice beat down of the Yanks - a sweep - which surely pleased the Fenway faithful.  Jacoby Ellsbury stole home on Andy Pettite.  He stole home!  Who does he think he is, Jackie Robinson?

And speaking of the Yankees - they are lowering their ticket prices for those "Legend" field level seats.  You wouldn't believe this, but even with all that tradition, even with all that history, all that mystique; even with all that pride, all that power, and all those pinstripes, people still don't want to spend 2600 bucks a pop to watch Chin Meing Wang give up 8 runs in the first inning.  Now, normally, major corporations would be buying up these seats and send their CEOs to go there and type away on their blackberries while they entertain clients.  But thanks to the fact that said corporations have all been bailed out courtesy of the US taxpayer, less money seems to be available for luxuries like 2600 dollar Yankees seats.  IMAGINE - the Yankees might actually try to sell these seats now to real Yankees fans.  

Double Secret Probation

Last year, in early July, after a dreadful loss to the Cardinals in a game they should have easily won, I lost it.  I lost it, and I placed the Mets on DOUBLE SECRET PROBATION.   (You can see the post here: http://trippingac.blogspot.com/2008/07/and-its-same-old-song.html)

From that point on (until their mid-september slide anyway), the Mets went on a fantastic run and played great baseball.  So, even though it's only April - even though it would be rash to get too upset about how amazing the Mets have been at finding ways to blow leads and lose games - I am taking a preemptive measure here.  I am now placing you, NY Mets, on DOUBLE SECRET PROBATION.

Because I cannot take watching this bullshit from now until July.